Hyder Ali’s Blog

1. Yahoo will be broken up and sold off. Right now, I think that’s the only way it can deliver value for its shareholders. My hunch is Microsoft will get Yahoo’s search business and News Corp. or some other media conglomerate will scoop up its portal and exchange assets.

2. Google will offer DART Search for free. More on this in tomorrow’s Search Insider column. Making DART Search free will lower expectations of users (hey, you get what you pay for!) and turn it into more of a solution for small and medium sized businesses (where it will face stiff competition from easy-to-use tools like Clickable). But, if the robust upgrades to Google Analytics are any indication, a free Google tool can still be very intuitive and innovative.

3. Omniture will acquire Covario and incorporate it into its Genesis suite. If a free DART Search becomes the tool of choice for SMB’s, Omniture will solidify its position as the technology for large enterprises (those that can afford to pay for “add-on services” like customer support and would be concerned with Google owning their data). For those not familiar, Covario is a nifty data aggregation platform that simplifies global search management and cross-channel tracking. Genesis is Omniture’s data warehouse that integrates data from disparate sources to allow for ease of correlation and analysis. Both share Fortune 500 customers. Seem like peas in a pod to me.

4. One of the Big 4 search engines will bow display ads on SERPs. I’ve been calling for this for over a year now. When Google bought DoubleClick, I thought this would be a no-brainer. They’ve started to tinker with banner ads on image results but that’s about it. With Yahoo desperate to increase revenue to offset a weak display market, adding banners to its SERP’s seems like a must. Meanwhile, Microsoft has to do something to make up for its measly share of search volume and Ask has already started experimenting with branding the homepage of its UK site for advertisers. One of these players will make the first move in ’09 and the others will quickly follow suit.

5. Microsoft will enhance its search results by incorporating the social graph. A month ago, I outlined my vision for the perfect search engine — one that allows you to toggle results based on the preferences of the specific community segments (eg, demo, geo, social connections). Microsoft has all this information at its fingertips through its Facebook partnership and Windows Live ID registration data. As I mentioned in prediction #4, Microsoft has to do something radical to capture share. It’s done a good job closing the gap on Google in terms of index size and relevancy (see my comments on this post) but it can’t keep playing catch up.

6. Google will have a major privacy slip-up and face serious consumer backlash. A lot has been made over the issue of privacy lately what with Yahoo recently cutting the amount of time it stores data to 90 days and Google falling off the list of most trusted companies with respect to privacy. To date, though, Google has been able to keep its “do no evil” promise intact, using consumer data only for altruistic endeavors like helping predict flu outbreaks. Mark my words, this shoe will drop in 2009. A rogue (or stupid) employee will make personally-identifiable search data available ala AOL’s 2006 snafu. A screw-up of this magnitude is about the only thing that will significantly erode Google’s search share (all apologies to YHOO, MSFT, and Ask — even something like prediction #5 is only good for a few percentage points… the Google habit is just too well-formed).

7. Mobile will become a staple of search marketing programs. Looking back, iPhone adoption (which surpassed the Razr as the top selling domestic handset in Q3) was a tipping point for mobile search usage in the U.S. (iPhone users conduct 50x more search queries) and voice search innovation will only continue to propel it forward. We still have a ways to go to catch up with mobile usage (and handset utility) of foreign countries but there is now a meaningful audience for marketers to connect with in the mobile environment. And, with passionate mobile mavens like Bryson Meunier and Jamie Wells spreading the gospel, I suspect we’ll see more and more penetration of mobile on search marketing plans.

8. Search marketers will focus more on post-click activity. OK, I’m not really going out on much of a limb here but, with budgets flat, the pressure will be on to extract more value from each site visitor. Rather than fiddle with front-end variables to drive more volume, search marketers will put renewed energy into driving visitors to action by improving conversion rates and average order value while looking to incorporate lifetime value metrics and cross-channel attribution models.

9. Search agencies will expand their offerings beyond “pure” search. With search spend flat, agencies will need to look beyond standard search management for growth. And, with search increasingly migrating to top of mind for marketers and the center of their media mix, it follows that search agencies will be positioned well to plan and execute campaigns across other channels. The key for search agencies will be staying disciplined about where they can add value based on their knowledge of digital consumer behavior, auction-based media, and optimizable content and not stray too far from the path of the query to chase the dollars.

10. I will finally get around to launching GoodSEMBadSEM.com, GoodPPCBadPPC.com, and GoodSEOBadSEO.com. I’ve been neglecting these 3 members of the Good/Bad family, instead spending my time on Good URL Bad URL, Good Slogan Bad Slogan, Good Commercial Bad Commercial, Good Word Bad Word, Bad Ad Good Ad — not to mention my other blogs like Digital Sea Change, EliaraGoldman.com, Freestyle Karaoke and LyricalG.com. Somehow some way, I’ll build some time into my Type-F lifestyle to start rating the Good, Bad, and Ugly of the search world. Lord knows, there’s no shortage of material out there!

I’ve long been of the belief that the vast majority of social media thinkers and doers easily lapse into the self-gratifying bubble that is our little online world and forgets the primary audience to which we should speak lies not on Twitter or Facebook or blogs. We are good a sharing social media. We are better at stroking each other and the latter is easier to accomplish.

But what it accomplishes is little. I’ve said before that I feel we should spend less time talking to each other and more talking to the un-enlightened. I’ve made speaking commitments for 2009 at conferences and engagements outside my comfort zone for that very reason. The Social Media Club Louisville will take a decided direction on education, offering paid boot camps for non-profits, educators, public relations professionals and more this year. We will focus on the tools, the basics and getting to know social media so that when we do have events to talk strategy, we aren’t met with deer-in-headlights looks and cricket chirping.

But what can we do for our clients, our businesses and our immediate social media needs to get outside that box as well?

Forrester Research’s Social Technographics Ladder from Flickr.

Let’s start with Forrester’s now familiar Social Technographics Ladder. This image proposes Internet users are made up of six groups of participants: those who don’t participate in social sites; spectators who look, but nothing more; joiners who maintain profiles but don’t really get “into” it; collectors who will vote, add tags and maybe use RSS feeds but little else; critics who contribute comments, ratings, edit articles in a wiki and participate on other sites but not their own; and creators who publish their own materials.

According to Forrester’s 2008 statistics to fill in those roles, 21 percent of Internet users are now creators, up from 18 percent in 2007. Surprisingly, 25 percent are inactive, down dramatically from 44 percent in 2007. And an astonishing 69 percent are now spectators (up from 48 percent). All other categories increased as well.

Forrester Research’s Social Technographic Profile of U.S. Online Adults via Flickr

Here’s what these numbers mean to me and how they translate to actionable strategies for your 2009 social media activities.

1. More people are adopting the social web as a regular activity.
2. With almost 70 percent of all Internet users now watching what is happening on social sites, companies are now at a critical point in time in doing something meaningful there to capture those attentions.
3. The traditional marketing mindset, however, seeks numbers, eyeballs, etc., so the programs developed are aimed at influencers hoping for the trickle-down and long-tail effects of “going viral.”
4. This means the way we are approaching social media targeting is flawed.

Instead of developing programs to entice the creators or critics into talking about our companies, products or services, why don’t we develop ones that focus on the spectators and serve their needs? By giving them what they’re looking for, we connect our brand to their experience in a meaningful way. And frankly, if we do that, the creators and critics will follow.

It’s worth a shot, right?

Here’s a snippet of what I mean:

Let’s say you’re the brand manager for the Smart Car. You develop a lifestyle website around the Smart Car with content focused on green issues, other eco-friendly companies and programs, helpful tips and pointers to a green lifestyle, environmental event coverage, charity partnerships, etc. Think of it as a tree-hugger’s magazine online. (I don’t say “blog” because that’s the first word that turns most spectators — read: brand managers — off.) By giving the spectator the type of experience online they’re perhaps looking for, but also intertwining your very relevant brand into the content and messaging, you’re giving them something useful. By doing so, you enamor your brand with them and have a chance at sales, conversions, etc.

That’s just one idea and not one given a lot of thought. Imagine, Mr. or Mrs. Smart Car Brand Manager, what we could accomplish if I were fully functional, being paid and off my pain meds. (Heh.)

So my challenge to all of us in 2009 is to not stop thinking about the influencers, but start thinking about the larger audiences of people just toe-tipping the social web, too. Let’s give them something to consume, something to do, some people to interact with on behalf of the brand. Why does it have to be on an influencer’s blog? Why can’t it be on our dime, our time and our server? Let’s see what we can do to not scare them off and show them that we’ve been listening. We know you don’t want to be marketed to. We just want to welcome you to our new world where we talk, listen, share and collaborate.

If we do that, 2009 will be our best yet.

1. Google, Google & More Google.  Did I Mention Google?
   It’s Google’s world and we all just search in it.  Yahoo & MSN will still be generating traffic but Google’s share will continue to grow and if you’re not showing up in the GSERPs you better rethink your marketing strategy.
2. The Number of Small Business Websites Trying SEO Will Increase By 10x
   The economy sucks.  Small business websites suck at Internet marketing in general.  SMB’s will realize that one of the best ways to fight the economy is to not suck quite so bad at Internet marketing.
3. A Thousand Local SEOs Will Bloom
   Probably a lot more than that.  Per my post I’m a Mortgage Broker, I Mean SEO, unemployed people with basic SEO knowledge will hang up their SEO consultant shingles in record numbers causing a large increase in the number of SMBs trying SEO (see prediction #2), and consequently causing a large increase in future clients for SEOs who actually know what they are doing.
4. SEO Will Become A New Line of Business For Many Companies
   In a market where cash is king, everyone will be reviewing their assets to see where the cash generators are.  If you have any kind of brand, be it local, national, whatever, chances are you are sitting on top of a valuable SEO asset and don’t even know it.  Smart businesses who understand the power of search will start to use SEO to reinvent what their brand means in search (a fancy way of saying besides trying to rank for the money terms for their core business, they will now start to focus on money terms that may have nothing to do with their core biz, but that they have the ability to rank well for).  Aaron Wall calls it “brand spamming“.  I call it destiny.
5. SEO Referral Services Will Be All The Rage
   No one has really claimed the mantel of “the place to go to find a good SEO consultant”.  Maybe SEOMoz has kind of, but I think they focus more on the community/education thing and not as much on get me five bids from five great SEO firms and get them to me now.  They’re coming baby so get ready.
6. SEO Communities Will Continue to Flourish
   With services link Ning and KickApps, the cost of community creation has dramatically decreased.  Any SEO blogger with a semi-decent brand or a lot of marketing chutzpah is going to be tempted to create their own version of SEOMoz or SEOBook’s premium service.  Why should the big guys get to have all of the fun?
7. Google Maps Will Continue to Endure Massive Map Spamming
   It seems like the only way around this is to create some kind of a Wikipedia-type thing where there is a core of crazy maniacal community editors who are watching over everything like hawks. But it could be a lot easier to prove that someone is spamming the Britney Spears page v. the local tattoo parlor profile.
8. Video SEO Will Continue to Be An Amazing Area of Opportunity
   More and more marketers will figure out that the easiest way to exploit Google Universal Search is via local video seo.
9. A Big Local Search Site Will Fix The SEO Loophole That Only A Few Of Us Know About
   I sure ain’t telling… ;P
10. Two Words: Stimulus SEO
    I don’t know how it’s going to go down but when Obama injects a few trillion into the economy you know patriotic search marketers everywhere are going to be figuring out how to get a piece of it.  For example – you could set up a site that tracks the how the pork is spent city by city (www.pork-in-city.com) and then when it hits big you redirect each city page to a local butcher profile page.  Just reread that.  It must be getting late.Oblique Strategy for 2009: Trust in the you of now